Top 9 carriers control 83% of capacity, but the 3 alliances control only 39%

排名前9位的運營商控制了83% 的運力，但是3個聯盟只控制了39%

Greg Miller 格雷格 · 米勒 Wednesday, February 01, 2023 2023年2月1日，星期三

The world’s top two container lines — Switzerland’s MSC and Denmark’s Maersk — have cooperated since 2015 in the 2M alliance, a partnership they will end in 2025.Because MSC and Maersk have the biggest fleets, controlling over a third of all global capacity between them, 2M is the largest alliance, right?

全球最大的兩家集裝箱航運公司——瑞士的海運集團(MSC)和丹麥的馬士基(Maersk)——自2015年以來一直在2M 聯盟中進行合作，雙方將于2025年結束這種伙伴關系。因為 MSC 和馬士基擁有最大的船隊，控制著全球超過三分之一的運力，2M 是最大的聯盟，對嗎？

【資料圖】

Not so, explained container shipping data provider and analyst Alphaliner. “The picture can be deceiving,” it said.

集裝箱運輸數據提供商和分析師 Alphaliner 解釋說，事實并非如此。

The three global alliances — 2M, Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance — cover the major east-west trades (Asia-U.S., Asia-Europe, Europe-U.S.) and 2M is actually the smallest of the three.

Alliances are multiyear vessel-sharing agreements approved by regulators that allow carrier members to offer joint services and cooperate on capacity management. Shipping lines only dedicate a portion of their ships to alliances. The remainder are used for north-south trades, intra-Asia service and other routes.

The membership of the three alliances comprises the world’s top nine liner operators. These nine carrierscontrol 83%of the global capacity between them. Yet the capacity these nine carriers dedicate to the three alliances represents a much smaller share: 39%.

2M capacity

2M 容量

MSC has total fleet capacity of 4.63 million twenty-foot equivalent units. But it only contributes 25% of that (1.15 million TEUs) to 2M, according to Alphaliner. That is the smallest share, by far, of alliance capacity of any of the nine carriers involved in the three groups.

Maersk has total capacity of 4.23 million TEUs, with 39% in 2M (1.66M TEUs).

Total 2M capacity is 2.82 million TEUs. That’s only 11% of global capacity, a much lower share than the overall combined MSC-Maersk fleets (34%).

Ocean Alliance capacity

海洋聯盟容量

It is also significantly lower than capacity in the biggest shipping alliance: the Ocean Alliance, whose members are France’s CMA CGM, the world’s third-largest liner operator; China’s Cosco, the fourth largest (including subsidiary OOCL); and Taiwan’s Evergreen, the sixth largest.

它的運力也遠遠低于最大的航運聯盟: 海洋聯盟(Ocean Alliance) ，其成員包括全球第三大班輪運營商法國達飛集團(CMA CGM) ; 中國第四大(包括子公司東方海外)的中遠(Cosco) ; 以及臺灣第六大的長榮(Evergreen)。

The Ocean Alliance has total capacity of 4.3 million TEUs, 52% more than 2M. Ocean Alliance capacity accounts for 16% of global fleet capacity.

Its members are individually smaller than Maersk and MSC, but they deploy much more of their capacity within the alliance. CMA CGM and Cosco have around half their capacity in the Ocean Alliance, Evergreen at three-quarters.

THE Alliance capacity

THE聯盟容量

The second largest global shipping alliance is THE Alliance, the partnership between Japan’s ONE (the world’s seventh-largest carrier), Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd (No. 5), South Korea’s HMM (No. 8) and Taiwan’s Yang Ming (No. 9).

全球第二大航運聯盟是日本的 ONE (世界第七大船司)、德國的 Hapag-Lloyd (世界第五大船司)、韓國的 HMM (世界第八大船司)和臺灣的陽明(世界第九大船司)。

While the members of THE Alliance are smaller individually than those in the Ocean Alliance, they contribute even more of their fleets to the strategic agreement. Yang Ming has 80% of its capacity in alliance services, HMM 78%, ONE 69% and Hapag-Lloyd 43%, according to Alphaliner.

The combined deployed capacity in THE Alliance, 3.03 million TEUs, represents 12% of global capacity.

(Chart on right: American Shipper based on Alphaliner data; two charts on left: Alphaliner) (右圖: 基于 Alphaliner 數據的美國托運人; 左圖: Alphaliner)

What’s next for alliances?

聯盟的下一步是什么？

Speculation has been swirling about whether the recently announced breakup of 2M will lead to or coincide with changes in the other two alliances.

人們一直在猜測，最近宣布的2M 解散是否會導致或與其他兩個聯盟的變化同時發生。

Alphaliner believes MSC will go it alone and does not need to join another alliance, given its massive orderbook and unprecedented buying spree in the secondhand market.

Alphaliner 認為，鑒于 MSC 的大量訂單和史無前例的二手市場收購狂潮，該公司將單干，不需要加入另一個聯盟。

“The key question remains whether Maersk will try to build a new alliance around itself or not,” it said. “Unlike MSC, whose fleet could swell to 6 million TEUs in the coming years, Maersk might not have the necessary scale to go it alone.”

“關鍵問題仍然是，馬士基是否會試圖圍繞自身建立一個新的聯盟,”該公司表示。“與未來幾年可能增至600萬標準箱的海運公司不同，馬士基可能沒有必要的規模單獨行動。”

Maersk told Alphaliner it will not seek to set up a new alliance to replace 2M. Instead, it “plans to run a stand-alone network on key trade lanes,” Alphaliner reported Tuesday.

Nevertheless, Alphaliner cited two theoretical alliance possibilities: Maersk could join THE Alliance, or it could team up with CMA CGM if the French carrier left the Ocean Alliance.

盡管如此，Alphaliner 列舉了兩種理論上的聯盟可能性: 馬士基可以加入海洋聯盟，或者如果法國航空公司離開海洋聯盟，它可以與 CMA CGM 合作。

CMA CGM has LNG- and methanol-fueled newbuildings in line with Maersk’s methanol-fuel strategy. In addition, there are geopolitical risks to the Ocean Alliance.

CMA CGM 擁有 LNG 和甲醇燃料的新訂單，符合馬士基的甲醇燃料戰略。此外，海洋聯盟還面臨地緣政治風險。

“CMA CGM … could be afraid that the group will be dominated by China or that geopolitical tensions — with Cosco being from mainland China, OOCL from Hong Kong and Evergreen from Taiwan — could spill over into the alliance’s day-to-day operations,” noted Alphaliner.

“ CMA CGM... ... 可能擔心該集團將由中國大陸主導，或者擔心地緣政治緊張局勢(中遠來自中國大陸、東方海外來自香港、長榮來自臺灣)可能波及到聯盟的日常運營,”Alphaliner 表示。

If Maersk stays out of new formal alliances, which Alphaliner believes is the most likely scenario, Maersk could cooperate on a non-alliance basis with Zim (NYSE: ZIM), which currently does joint North American services with 2M. The analyst noted that Zim’s LNG-powered newbuilds “would be a good match” for Maersk.

如果馬士基不與新的正式聯盟(Alphaliner 認為這是最有可能的情況)進行合作，馬士基可以與 ZIM (紐約證券交易所市場代碼: ZIM)在非聯盟的基礎上進行合作。 ZIM 目前與2M 公司合作提供北美地區的服務。這位分析師指出，Zim 的液化天然氣動力新廠“將是與馬士基的良好匹配”。

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